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Table 2 Results from Generalized Additive Models for crime counts in 100-m grids and 6-h slots

From: Blowing in the wind? Testing the effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime using Generalized Additive Models

Fixed term estimates

Basic

Precipitation

Temperature

Wind

Est

(C.I.)

Est

(C.I.)

Est

(C.I.)

Est

(C.I.)

Intercept

0.000

(0.000–0.000)***

0.000

(0.000–0.000)***

0.000

(0.000–0.000)***

0.000

(0.000–0.000)***

 Temperature (degrees Celsius)

1.002

(1.001–1.003)***

1.002

(1.001–1.003)***

0.999

(0.998–1.001)

1.002

(1.001–1.003)***

 Precipitation (mm)

0.995

(0.993–0.998)**

0.996

(0.993–0.999)*

0.996

(0.993–0.998)**

0.995

(0.993–0.998)**

 Wind speed (m/s)

0.994

(0.991–0.997)***

0.994

(0.991–0.997)***

0.994

(0.991–0.997)***

0.993

(0.987–0.999)*

Time of day (ref = 0–6)

                

 6–12

0.365

(0.358–0.372)***

0.365

(0.358–0.372)***

0.364

(0.357–0.371)***

0.365

(0.358–0.372)***

 12–18

1.000

(0.985–1.015)

1.000

(0.985–1.015)

0.997

(0.983–1.012)

1.000

(0.985–1.015)

 18–24

0.860

(0.848–0.873)***

0.860

(0.848–0.873)***

0.858

(0.846–0.871)***

0.860

(0.848–0.873)***

Season (ref = Fall)

                

 Spring

1.024

(1.008–1.04)**

1.024

(1.008–1.039)**

1.024

(1.009–1.04)**

1.024

(1.008–1.04)**

 Summer

0.911

(0.894–0.927)***

0.911

(0.894–0.928)***

0.901

(0.883–0.918)***

0.910

(0.894–0.927)***

 Winter

0.907

(0.890–0.924)***

0.907

(0.890–0.925)***

0.904

(0.886–0.921)***

0.907

(0.890–0.924)***

Smoothing splines

  

EDF

  

EDF

  

EDF

  

EDF

 Baseline surface

  

23.69***

            

 No rain

      

23.90***

        

 Rain

      

23.77***

        

 Surface T3

          

23.81***

  

23.85***

 Surface T2

          

23.76***

  

23.73***

 Surface T1

          

23.80***

  

23.68***

Model fit

                

 R2

0.025

   

0.025

   

0.025

   

0.025

   

 Dev.expl

0.232

   

0.232

   

0.233

   

0.233

   

 N

20,700,575

  

20,700,575

  

20,700,575

  

20,700,575

  
  1. The outcome is grid-specific crime counts
  2. The basic model includes a spatial surface (as a semiparametric smoothing spline), as well as three weather characteristics, and sets of dummies for time of day and season
  3. In the weather specific models, the spatial surface is additionally allowed to vary with one discretized weather characteristic (rain, temperature or wind)
  4. ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05