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Table 6 Multivariate linear regressions with ARIMA errors (coefficients and 95% Confidence Intervals)

From: Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

  Violence with injury Violence without injury Sexual offences Robbery Possession of drugs Drug trafficking
First lockdown − 113.8 [− 225.1, − 2.5] − 157.2 [− 255.0, − 59.4] − 77.0 [− 113.4, − 40.7] − 28.2 [− 38.4, − 18.0] − 53.3 [− 103.0, − 3.5] − 30.2 [− 44.4, − 16.1]
Time since first lockdown 41.9 [9.8, 73.9] 24.9 [3.2, 46.6] 7.4 [-3.8, 18.6] 1.9 [− 1.0, 4.9] 9.1 [− 1.8, 20.1] 5.2 [0.9, 9.5]
Second lockdown − 134.5 [− 368.3, 99.2] − 53.1 [− 183.7, 77.5] − 68.8 [− 149.5, 12.0] − 22.5 [− 44.2, − 0.8] − 17.6 [− 105.5, 70.2] 8.6 [− 22.5, 39.7]
Time since second lockdown 40.4 [− 23.6, 104.5] 27.4 [-25.8, 80.6] 4.6 [− 14.6, 25.8] 7.0 [1.1, 12.9] 40.5 [5.4, 75.5] 4.1 [− 4.2, 12.4]
Third lockdown − 321.2 [− 578.9, − 63.4] − 453.0 [− 578.6, − 327.4] − 54.4 [− 145.0, 36.3] − 24.6 [− 48.6, − 0.6] − 12.0 [− 86.7, 62.7] − 14.2 [− 49.1, 20.6]
Time since third lockdown 106.5 [65.8, 147.1] 152.8 [117.2, 188.3] 13.3 [− 0.8, 27.3] 0.5 [− 3.3, 4.2] 21.9 [4.9, 38.8] 8.0 [2.6, 13.4]
Model components (1, 1, 0) (0, 0, 2) (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 0)
  Public order and possession of weapons Criminal damage Residential burglary Non-residential burglary Theft from person Bicycle theft
First lockdown − 40.6 [− 67.4, − 13.9] − 241.2 [− 397.3, − 85.1] − 67.3 [− 123.6, − 11.0] 12.1 [− 11.0, 35.2] − 14.5 [− 28.9, 0.0] − 4.8 [− 24.0, 14.4]
Time since first lockdown 17.2 [− 4.2, 38.6] 52.8 [16.2, 89.4] 0.2 [− 16.6, 17.0] 8.0 [− 10.7, 26.8] 0.4 [− 13.2, 14.1] 2.0 [− 2.5, 6.5]
Second lockdown 60.0 [− 83.9, 203.9] 369.4 [93.2, 645.7] 2.4 [-119.4, 124.2] 84.1 [− 41.8, 210.1] − 27.4 [− 117.7, 63.0] 41.9 [11.1, 72.7]
Time since second lockdown 7.2 [− 23.4, 37.7] − 186.0 [− 277.8, 94.3] − 15.0 [− 47.1, 17.0] 2.6 [− 24.1, 29.3] 13.1 [− 8.0, 34.2] − 27.5 [− 40.5, − 14.5]
Third lockdown 50.8 [− 163.7, 265.2] − 295.4 [− 570.2, − 20.6] − 109.4 [− 246.0, 27.1] 65.5 [− 122.4, 253.3] − 7.7 [− 143.2, 127.9] − 40.9 [− 68.6, − 13.3]
Time since third lockdown 17.0 [− 19.4, 53.4] 73.5 [23.9, 123.2] 0.4 [− 20.7, 21.4] 14.2 [− 17.8, 46.1] 9.8 [− 21.7, 41.4] 3.3 [− 4.4, 11.0]
Model components (2, 2, 0) (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) (2, 2, 0) (4, 3, 0) (1, 0, 1)
  Theft of/ from vehicle Shoplifting Investment and advance fee fraud Consumer fraud offline Consumer fraud online Other fraud Cyber-dependent crime
First lockdown − 34.0 [− 74.8, 6.8] − 265.5 [− 308.7, − 222.3] − 22.5 [− 40.3, − 6.7] − 24.2 [− 31.7, − 16.7] -127.2 [-151.8, − 102.6] − 6.4 [− 39.5, 26.7] 11.4 [3.6, 19.3]
Time since first lockdown − 4.3 [− 13.8, 51.] 12.6 [2.6, 22.7] 7.8 [4.2, 11.4] − 6.1 [− 14.6, 2.3] 60.0 [30.5, 89.4] 21.6 [− 15.8, 58.9] − 0.1 [− 1.9, 1.7]
Second lockdown − 19.1 [87.9, 49.8] 90.6 [− 17.0, 198.2] 33.5 [7.7, 59.5] − 53.3 [− 108.4, 1.8] 313.6 [120.7, 506.5] 85.9 [− 161.3, 333.2] − 0.6 [− 14.4, 13.2]
Time since second lockdown − 13.1 [− 37.5, 11.4] − 103.6 [− 142.4, − 64.7] − 4.9 [− 15.1, 5.3] − 28.2 [− 45.2, -11.2] − 3.8 [− 59.4, 51.8] 10.2 [− 41.4, 61.8] 13.5 [8.5, 18.6]
Third lockdown − 80.5 [− 145.2, -15.8] − 407.3 [− 501.0, − 313.7] 19.8 [-2.8, 42.5] − 158.4 [− 248.0, − 68.8] 204.7 [− 112.1, 521.5] 5.3 [− 338.9, 349.6] 6.5 [− 6.4, 19.5]
Time since third lockdown 0.7 [− 13.2, 14.6] 36.2 [16.5, 55.9] 0.6 [− 5.0, 6.1 − 19.1 [− 49.5, 11.2] 7.3 [− 79.8, 94.4] 100.5 [14.9, 189.0] 1.8 [− 0.7, 4.4]
Model components (1, 1, 1) (1, 2, 8) (1, 1, 1) (4, 5, 0) (4, 5, 0) (5, 4, 0) (0, 1, 1)