Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

Table 6 Multivariate linear regressions with ARIMA errors (coefficients and 95% Confidence Intervals)

	Violence with injury	Violence without injury	Sexual offences	Robbery	Possession of drugs	Drug trafficking
First lockdown	− 113.8 [− 225.1, − 2.5]	− 157.2 [− 255.0, − 59.4]	− 77.0 [− 113.4, − 40.7]	− 28.2 [− 38.4, − 18.0]	− 53.3 [− 103.0, − 3.5]	− 30.2 [− 44.4, − 16.1]
Time since first lockdown	41.9 [9.8, 73.9]	24.9 [3.2, 46.6]	7.4 [-3.8, 18.6]	1.9 [− 1.0, 4.9]	9.1 [− 1.8, 20.1]	5.2 [0.9, 9.5]
Second lockdown	− 134.5 [− 368.3, 99.2]	− 53.1 [− 183.7, 77.5]	− 68.8 [− 149.5, 12.0]	− 22.5 [− 44.2, − 0.8]	− 17.6 [− 105.5, 70.2]	8.6 [− 22.5, 39.7]
Time since second lockdown	40.4 [− 23.6, 104.5]	27.4 [-25.8, 80.6]	4.6 [− 14.6, 25.8]	7.0 [1.1, 12.9]	40.5 [5.4, 75.5]	4.1 [− 4.2, 12.4]
Third lockdown	− 321.2 [− 578.9, − 63.4]	− 453.0 [− 578.6, − 327.4]	− 54.4 [− 145.0, 36.3]	− 24.6 [− 48.6, − 0.6]	− 12.0 [− 86.7, 62.7]	− 14.2 [− 49.1, 20.6]
Time since third lockdown	106.5 [65.8, 147.1]	152.8 [117.2, 188.3]	13.3 [− 0.8, 27.3]	0.5 [− 3.3, 4.2]	21.9 [4.9, 38.8]	8.0 [2.6, 13.4]
Model components	(1, 1, 0)	(0, 0, 2)	(1, 1, 0)	(1, 1, 0)	(1, 1, 2)	(1, 1, 0)

	Public order and possession of weapons	Criminal damage	Residential burglary	Non-residential burglary	Theft from person	Bicycle theft
First lockdown	− 40.6 [− 67.4, − 13.9]	− 241.2 [− 397.3, − 85.1]	− 67.3 [− 123.6, − 11.0]	12.1 [− 11.0, 35.2]	− 14.5 [− 28.9, 0.0]	− 4.8 [− 24.0, 14.4]
Time since first lockdown	17.2 [− 4.2, 38.6]	52.8 [16.2, 89.4]	0.2 [− 16.6, 17.0]	8.0 [− 10.7, 26.8]	0.4 [− 13.2, 14.1]	2.0 [− 2.5, 6.5]
Second lockdown	60.0 [− 83.9, 203.9]	369.4 [93.2, 645.7]	2.4 [-119.4, 124.2]	84.1 [− 41.8, 210.1]	− 27.4 [− 117.7, 63.0]	41.9 [11.1, 72.7]
Time since second lockdown	7.2 [− 23.4, 37.7]	− 186.0 [− 277.8, 94.3]	− 15.0 [− 47.1, 17.0]	2.6 [− 24.1, 29.3]	13.1 [− 8.0, 34.2]	− 27.5 [− 40.5, − 14.5]
Third lockdown	50.8 [− 163.7, 265.2]	− 295.4 [− 570.2, − 20.6]	− 109.4 [− 246.0, 27.1]	65.5 [− 122.4, 253.3]	− 7.7 [− 143.2, 127.9]	− 40.9 [− 68.6, − 13.3]
Time since third lockdown	17.0 [− 19.4, 53.4]	73.5 [23.9, 123.2]	0.4 [− 20.7, 21.4]	14.2 [− 17.8, 46.1]	9.8 [− 21.7, 41.4]	3.3 [− 4.4, 11.0]
Model components	(2, 2, 0)	(0, 1, 1)	(1, 1, 0)	(2, 2, 0)	(4, 3, 0)	(1, 0, 1)

	Theft of/ from vehicle	Shoplifting	Investment and advance fee fraud	Consumer fraud offline	Consumer fraud online	Other fraud	Cyber-dependent crime
First lockdown	− 34.0 [− 74.8, 6.8]	− 265.5 [− 308.7, − 222.3]	− 22.5 [− 40.3, − 6.7]	− 24.2 [− 31.7, − 16.7]	-127.2 [-151.8, − 102.6]	− 6.4 [− 39.5, 26.7]	11.4 [3.6, 19.3]
Time since first lockdown	− 4.3 [− 13.8, 51.]	12.6 [2.6, 22.7]	7.8 [4.2, 11.4]	− 6.1 [− 14.6, 2.3]	60.0 [30.5, 89.4]	21.6 [− 15.8, 58.9]	− 0.1 [− 1.9, 1.7]
Second lockdown	− 19.1 [87.9, 49.8]	90.6 [− 17.0, 198.2]	33.5 [7.7, 59.5]	− 53.3 [− 108.4, 1.8]	313.6 [120.7, 506.5]	85.9 [− 161.3, 333.2]	− 0.6 [− 14.4, 13.2]
Time since second lockdown	− 13.1 [− 37.5, 11.4]	− 103.6 [− 142.4, − 64.7]	− 4.9 [− 15.1, 5.3]	− 28.2 [− 45.2, -11.2]	− 3.8 [− 59.4, 51.8]	10.2 [− 41.4, 61.8]	13.5 [8.5, 18.6]
Third lockdown	− 80.5 [− 145.2, -15.8]	− 407.3 [− 501.0, − 313.7]	19.8 [-2.8, 42.5]	− 158.4 [− 248.0, − 68.8]	204.7 [− 112.1, 521.5]	5.3 [− 338.9, 349.6]	6.5 [− 6.4, 19.5]
Time since third lockdown	0.7 [− 13.2, 14.6]	36.2 [16.5, 55.9]	0.6 [− 5.0, 6.1	− 19.1 [− 49.5, 11.2]	7.3 [− 79.8, 94.4]	100.5 [14.9, 189.0]	1.8 [− 0.7, 4.4]
Model components	(1, 1, 1)	(1, 2, 8)	(1, 1, 1)	(4, 5, 0)	(4, 5, 0)	(5, 4, 0)	(0, 1, 1)

ISSN: 2193-7680