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Table 5 Interrupted time series models of fraud and cybercrime

From: Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

 

Investment and advance fee fraud

Consumer fraud offline

Consumer fraud online

Other fraud

Cyber-dependent crime

(Intercept)

37.7***

10.7***

59.7***

55.1***

14.4***

Time

0.5***

0.2***

0.8***

1.6***

0.2***

First lockdown

− 23.1

− 3.5

3.3

− 46.8*

8.7

Time since first lockdown

5.8+

1.9+

6.2

11.0*

− 1.1

Second lockdown

24.4

9.2

7.8

32.2

− 5.4

Time since second lockdown

− 6.5

− 2.2

24.2

-6.6

13.3*

Third lockdown

23.1

− 2.0

55.5*

32.0

3.0

Time since third lockdown

− 3.2

2.3

− 1.9

7.7

0.6

Seasonality

7.6+

0.1

− 5.5

6.8

3.1

Adjusted R2

0.38

0.48

0.67

0.74

0.46

  1. ***p-value < 0.001, **p-value < 0.01, *p-value < 0.05, +p-value < 0.1
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Crime Science

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