Table 2 Model parameter estimates and final ARIMA specification
From: The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia
Crime type/group | Pre-lockdown trend | Level change | Trend change | Ljung–Box test | ARIMA specification | RMSE | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic assault | 0.417 (0.300) | − 38.1 (35.100) | 2.88 (4.100) | 0.738 | (5,0,0) (1,0,0) | 42.99 | 31.60 |
Non DV assault | 0.001 (0.235) | − 154*** (46.200) | 4.58 (5.150) | 0.144 | (1,0,2) (0,0,1) | 46.25 | 36.77 |
Indecent assault/act of indecency | 0.102* (0.044) | − 48.8*** (14.900) | 3.44* (1.740) | 0.560 | (2,0,2) (1,0,1) | 21.57 | 16.76 |
Sexual assault | 0.071 (0.048) | − 36.9** (13.500) | 3.47* (1.50) | 0.725 | (0,0,2) (0,0,1) | 17.17 | 13.75 |
Aggregated sexual/indecent assault | 0.161 (0.099) | − 85.7*** (26.1) | 7.56** (2.92) | 0.139 | (1,0,0) (0,0,1) | 32.44 | 24.65 |
Robbery with a weapon not a firearm | 0.018* (0.008) | − 6.71** (2.59) | 0.169 (0.287) | 0.410 | (0,0,1) (1,0,0) | 4.37 | 3.52 |
Robbery without a weapon | − 0.009 (0.011) | − 9.6** (3.40) | 0.324 (0.381) | 0.559 | (0,0,1) (1,0,0) | 5.50 | 4.47 |
Aggregated robbery | 0.006 (0.019) | − 14.7** (4.95) | 0.498 (0.543) | 0.563 | (0,0,5) (1,0,0) | 7.32 | 5.79 |
Break and enter (dwelling) | − 0.505** (0.169) | − 23.4 (30.5) | − 12.7*** (3.37) | 0.927 | (1,0,1) (1,0,0) | 35.33 | 27.85 |
Break and enter (non-dwelling) | − 0.111** (0.039) | − 17.5 (12.9) | − 5.38*** (1.50) | 0.460 | (0,0,1) (1,0,1) | 20.00 | 16.26 |
Motor vehicle theft | 0.003 (0.079) | − 16.1 (17.6) | − 4.81* (2.36) | 0.568 | (3,0,0) (1,0,1) | 20.24 | 15.21 |
Steal from motor vehicle | − 0.353* (0.175) | − 35.1 (48.1) | − 22.3*** (5.31) | 0.702 | (2,0,1) | 53.17 | 42.40 |
Steal from dwelling | − 0.140 (0.119) | − 43.5* (18.9) | − 1.73 (2.04) | 0.613 | (2,0,2) (1,0,0) | 26.23 | 19.86 |
Steal from person | − 0.171*** (0.029) | − 30.6*** (7.49) | − 0.011 (0.784) | 0.766 | (4,0,0) (1,0,0) | 10.18 | 8.09 |
Aggregated theft | − 1.270** (0.428) | − 136 (98.2) | − 49.4*** (10.7) | 0.065 | (2,0,0) (1,0,0) | 102.77 | 79.48 |
Fraud | 0.471* (0.220) | − 255*** (65.9) | 1.91 (7.39) | 0.872 | (0,0,1) (0,0,1) | 92.52 | 64.91 |
Total crime | − 0.129 (0.819) | − 635** (202) | − 38.8 (22.2) | 0.822 | (1,0,0) (1,0,0) | 203.64 | 160.62 |