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Table 2 Model parameter estimates and final ARIMA specification

From: The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia

Crime type/group Pre-lockdown trend Level change Trend change Ljung–Box test ARIMA specification RMSE MAE
Domestic assault 0.417 (0.300) − 38.1 (35.100) 2.88 (4.100) 0.738 (5,0,0) (1,0,0) 42.99 31.60
Non DV assault 0.001 (0.235) − 154*** (46.200) 4.58 (5.150) 0.144 (1,0,2) (0,0,1) 46.25 36.77
Indecent assault/act of indecency 0.102* (0.044) − 48.8*** (14.900) 3.44* (1.740) 0.560 (2,0,2) (1,0,1) 21.57 16.76
Sexual assault 0.071 (0.048) − 36.9** (13.500) 3.47* (1.50) 0.725 (0,0,2) (0,0,1) 17.17 13.75
Aggregated sexual/indecent assault 0.161 (0.099) − 85.7*** (26.1) 7.56** (2.92) 0.139 (1,0,0) (0,0,1) 32.44 24.65
Robbery with a weapon not a firearm 0.018* (0.008) − 6.71** (2.59) 0.169 (0.287) 0.410 (0,0,1) (1,0,0) 4.37 3.52
Robbery without a weapon − 0.009 (0.011) − 9.6** (3.40) 0.324 (0.381) 0.559 (0,0,1) (1,0,0) 5.50 4.47
Aggregated robbery 0.006 (0.019) − 14.7** (4.95) 0.498 (0.543) 0.563 (0,0,5) (1,0,0) 7.32 5.79
Break and enter (dwelling) − 0.505** (0.169) − 23.4 (30.5) − 12.7*** (3.37) 0.927 (1,0,1) (1,0,0) 35.33 27.85
Break and enter (non-dwelling) − 0.111** (0.039) − 17.5 (12.9) − 5.38*** (1.50) 0.460 (0,0,1) (1,0,1) 20.00 16.26
Motor vehicle theft 0.003 (0.079) − 16.1 (17.6) − 4.81* (2.36) 0.568 (3,0,0) (1,0,1) 20.24 15.21
Steal from motor vehicle − 0.353* (0.175) − 35.1 (48.1) − 22.3*** (5.31) 0.702 (2,0,1) 53.17 42.40
Steal from dwelling − 0.140 (0.119) − 43.5* (18.9) − 1.73 (2.04) 0.613 (2,0,2) (1,0,0) 26.23 19.86
Steal from person − 0.171*** (0.029) − 30.6*** (7.49) − 0.011 (0.784) 0.766 (4,0,0) (1,0,0) 10.18 8.09
Aggregated theft − 1.270** (0.428) − 136 (98.2) − 49.4*** (10.7) 0.065 (2,0,0) (1,0,0) 102.77 79.48
Fraud 0.471* (0.220) − 255*** (65.9) 1.91 (7.39) 0.872 (0,0,1) (0,0,1) 92.52 64.91
Total crime − 0.129 (0.819) − 635** (202) − 38.8 (22.2) 0.822 (1,0,0) (1,0,0) 203.64 160.62