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Table 2 Posterior Inference, Bayesian Structural Time-Series Model

From: The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health calls for police service

  Average Cumulative
Actual 13 557
Prediction (SD) 11 (0.78) 457 (32.57)
95% CI [9.4, 12] [393.9, 520]
Absolute Effect (SD) 2.4 (0.78) 100.3 (32.57)
95% CI [0.87, 3.9] [35.55, 163.1]
Relative Effect (SD) 22% (7.1%) 22% (7.1%)
95% CI [8%, 36%] [8%, 36%]
  1. Bayesian One-Sided Tail-Area Probability: p < .001
  2. Posterior Probability of a Causal Effect: 99.9%