Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City

Crime Science

Table 3 Crime-mobility models with ARIMA errors: estimates, specifications and GOF measures

	Mobility coefficient (SE)	Specification	ME	MAPE	AICc	Q (df)	KPSS
All crimes	0.167 (0.014)***	ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,0,1) [7]	0.73	6.28	−2588.28	20.33 (15)	0.09
Violent robbery	0.304 (0.020)***	ARIMA (1,1,2) (1,0,1) [7]	0.18	8.81	−1774.99	16.81 (14)	0.13
Non-violent robbery	0.373 (0.020)***	ARIMA (0,1,2) (2,0,0) [7]	0.83	11.26	−1256.83	18.30 (15)	0.42
Robbery against residence	-0.040 (0.037)	ARIMA (0,1,1) (2,0,0) [7]	0.48	23.88	443.62	15.04 (16)	0.29
Serious violent crime (non-sexual)	0.080 (0.035)*	ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,0,1) [7]	0.50	17.98	−210.57	21.96 (15)	0.15
Sexual violence	0.222 (0.047)***	ARIMA (1,0,1) w/linear trend	0.83	35.60	1342.43	21.79 (16)	0.17
Domestic violence	0.000 (0.027)	ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,0,1) [7] w/linear trend	0.52	13.61	−824.66	22.19 (14)	0.10
VAW helpline calls	0.136 (0.033)***	ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,0,3) [7]	1.02	17.26	−245.83	22.52 (13)*	0.07

Notes: Mobility coefficients in log-scale; \(^{***}p<0.001\), \(^{**}p<0.01\), \(^{*}p<0.05\)

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