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Table 2 ARIMA forecasting models specifications and accuracy measures

From: Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City

  Specification Pre–COVID–19 Post–COVID–19
ME MAPE ME MAPE
All crimes ARIMA (3,0,0)(0,1,1) [7] 3.75 6.30 −191.27 59.08
Violent robbery ARIMA (1,0,1)(2,1,1) [7] 1.42 9.11 −51.25 60.35
Non-violent robbery ARIMA (1,1,1)(2,0,0) [7] 1.18 12.19 −26.96 62.04
Robbery against residence ARIMA (0,1,1)(2,0,0) [7] 0.56 22.33 −7.56 163.38
Serious violent crime (non-sexual) ARIMA (2,1,1)(2,0,0) [7] 0.85 18.30 −8.44 60.15
Sexual violence ARIMA (1,0,1) w/linear trend 0.82 35.83 −15.29 196.12
Domestic violence ARIMA (2,0,1)(2,0,0) [7] w/linear trend 1.01 14.77 −21.90 51.03
VAW helpline calls ARIMA (0,0,2)(1,0,1) [7] w/linear trend 1.12 18.08 17.60 24.36
BRT + SCT passengers (in millions) ARIMA (4,0,0)(2,0,0) [7] w/mean 0.10 16.39 −2.77 191.91
  1. ME is the mean forecast error, MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error