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Table 3 Oster’s bounding methodology

From: The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

  All crime Assault & battery Theft & property crime Fraud Drug crime & extortion Homicides
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Month − 2 [− 27.80, 1.32] [− 0.89, 3.93] [− 3.44, 0.46] [− 0.01, 1.49] [− 0.32, 0.49] [− 0.05, 0.65]
Month 0 [− 67.72, − 2.48] [0.44, − 25.19] [− 6.48, − 3.50] [− 0.66, − 3.70] [− 0.54, 0.25] [0.14, 0.25]
Month 1 [− 60.40, − 26.62] [− 27.13, − 6.36] [− 17.74, − 17.22] [− 2.94, − 2.19] [− 0.83, − 0.65] [− 0.03, 0.86]
Month 2 [− 108.06, − 28.19] [− 43.16, − 7.85] [− 21.58, − 18.63] [− 4.65, − 2.24] [− 1.97, − 0.82] [− 0.85, − 0.23]
Month 3 [− 56.16, − 17.67] [− 30.26, − 4.09] [− 11.45, − 11.37] [− 5.62, − 1.17] [− 1.30, − 0.38] [− 0.17, 0.05]
Month 4 [− 72.88, − 12.74] [− 23.92, − 2.52] [− 11.84, − 9.49] [− 4.74, − 0.12] [− 2.09, − 0.21] [− 0.06, 0.22]
Month 5 [− 76.49, − 11.16] [− 26.63, − 2.27] [− 10.39, − 8.75] [− 4.56, 0.16] [− 2.42, − 0.28] [0.11, 0.79]
Month 6 [− 26.92, − 7.16] [− 24.80, − 1.40] [− 5.42, − 3.67] [− 1.95, 0.60] [− 1.44, − 0.30] [− 0.15, 0.64]
Month 7 [− 71.01, − 4.12] [− 28.25, − 0.56] [− 7.33, − 5.14] [− 4.71, 1.17] [− 2.41, − 0.50] [0.04, 0.73]
Baseline FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 49,140 49,140 49,140 49,140 49,140 49,140
R2 0.31 0.77 0.90 0.53 0.86 0.48
  1. Intervals in squares are the bounds. Baseline fixed effects are included at the municipality, month, and year