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Table 2 Difference-in-differences specification

From: The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

 

All crime

Assault & battery

Theft & property crime

Fraud

Drug crime & extortion

Homicides

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Post x Lockdown

− 16.979***

− 5.132***

− 9.985***

− 1.019***

− 0.836***

− 0.007

 

(1.191)

(0.350)

(0.867)

(0.206)

(0.294)

(0.070)

Observations

49,140

49,140

49,140

49,140

49,140

49,140

Adjusted R-sq

0.93

0.77

0.93

0.79

0.89

0.49

Mean dependent

87.12

20.11

53.83

4.87

5.42

2.89

Baseline FE

X

X

X

X

X

X

Time Trends

X

X

X

X

X

X

  1. Source: Mexico’s National Public Security System (Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública)
  2. Difference-in-differences estimates, which group the pre-period (before month 3) and post periods (month three onward). We include time trends in the difference-in-differences specification. Baseline fixed effects are included at the municipality, month, and year. Vertical lines show the start and end of the lockdown. The long-dashed red line shows the month before the start of the lockdown and the short-dashed green line indicates the end of the lockdown. Robust standard errors are clustered at the municipal level. Significance levels: *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01 Crimes are measured per 100,000 persons. The specification is weighted by the municipal-level population