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Table 2 Difference-in-differences specification

From: The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

  All crime Assault & battery Theft & property crime Fraud Drug crime & extortion Homicides
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Post x Lockdown − 16.979*** − 5.132*** − 9.985*** − 1.019*** − 0.836*** − 0.007
  (1.191) (0.350) (0.867) (0.206) (0.294) (0.070)
Observations 49,140 49,140 49,140 49,140 49,140 49,140
Adjusted R-sq 0.93 0.77 0.93 0.79 0.89 0.49
Mean dependent 87.12 20.11 53.83 4.87 5.42 2.89
Baseline FE X X X X X X
Time Trends X X X X X X
  1. Source: Mexico’s National Public Security System (Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública)
  2. Difference-in-differences estimates, which group the pre-period (before month 3) and post periods (month three onward). We include time trends in the difference-in-differences specification. Baseline fixed effects are included at the municipality, month, and year. Vertical lines show the start and end of the lockdown. The long-dashed red line shows the month before the start of the lockdown and the short-dashed green line indicates the end of the lockdown. Robust standard errors are clustered at the municipal level. Significance levels: *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01 Crimes are measured per 100,000 persons. The specification is weighted by the municipal-level population