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Table 11 Event-study specification: no Mexico City (Fig. 5)

From: The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

 

All Crime

Assault & Battery

Theft & Property Crime

Fraud

Drug Crime & Extortion

Homicides

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Month − 2

0.061

− 0.290

0.020

0.061

0.263

0.008

 

(0.957)

(0.373)

(0.677)

(0.157)

(0.225)

(0.107)

Month 0

− 7.227***

− 1.949***

− 4.659***

− 1.046***

0.132

0.295***

 

(1.112)

(0.380)

(0.765)

(0.172)

(0.311)

(0.111)

Month 1

− 26.258***

− 7.744***

− 15.843***

− 2.047***

− 0.658

0.034

 

(1.764)

(0.508)

(1.149)

(0.227)

(0.469)

(0.114)

Month 2

− 32.237***

− 10.670***

− 17.911***

− 2.208***

− 1.171***

− 0.276**

 

(1.903)

(0.576)

(1.357)

(0.212)

(0.327)

(0.110)

Month 3

− 18.509***

− 6.140***

− 10.216***

− 1.503***

− 0.473

− 0.177

 

(1.577)

(0.510)

(1.054)

(0.196)

(0.366)

(0.127)

Month 4

− 15.482***

− 4.365***

− 10.041***

− 0.522**

− 0.524

− 0.029

 

(1.678)

(0.527)

(1.146)

(0.255)

(0.394)

(0.115)

Month 5

− 14.203***

− 4.408***

− 9.091***

− 0.207

− 0.676

0.180

 

(1.558)

(0.490)

(1.092)

(0.261)

(0.472)

(0.116)

Month 6

− 8.029***

− 3.154***

− 4.688***

0.284

− 0.379

− 0.091

 

(1.654)

(0.566)

(1.093)

(0.275)

(0.412)

(0.125)

Month 7

− 9.555***

− 3.028***

− 6.241***

0.404

− 0.776

0.085

 

(1.881)

(0.644)

(1.179)

(0.307)

(0.507)

(0.115)

Observations

48,820

48,820

48,820

48,820

48,820

48,820

Adjusted R-sq

0.90

0.76

0.90

0.60

0.85

0.46

Mean Dependent

87.12

20.11

53.83

4.87

5.42

2.89

Baseline FE

X

X

X

X

X

X

  1. Source: Mexico’s National Public Security System (Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública)
  2. Plotted coefficients are event-study dummy variables, βq. Each plotted point represents the number of months before and after the lockdown. Baseline fixed effects are included at the municipality, month, and year. Vertical lines show the start and end of the lockdown. The long-dashed red line shows the month before the start of the lockdown and the short-dashed green line indicates the end of the lockdown. Robust standard errors are clustered at the municipal level. Significance levels: *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01 Crimes are measured per 100,000 persons