Table 1 Description of predictor variables applied in the modelling, the rationale for their use and link to Situational Crime Prevention techniques (shown in bold italics)
From: Illegal fishing and compliance management in marine protected areas: a situational approach
Dimension | Measure | Description | Construct | Range (unit) | SCP Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Biophysical | Reef aspect | Compass direction that a slope faces (E:90°; S: 180°; W:260°; N:0° = 360°) | Influences the exposure of recreational vessels to particular wind and current conditions. We would expect recreational fishers to choose sheltered locations to fish | 0–360 (°) | The identification of biophysical fishing attractors within no-take MNPs can be used by managers to develop strategies that Increase the Effort and Increase the Risk of poaching at these locations |
Depth | Distance from the surface to the sea bottom | Shapes fish composition and biomass and determines anchoring length. Target reef fish species are generally present in shallower waters and we expect the risk of poaching to decrease with increased depth | 0- -3751 (m) | Â | |
Islands | Distance to the nearest island | Islands represent important recreational boating attractors and are potential access nodes to surrounding MNPs. Increased general recreational activity may increase the risk of poaching | 0–164.6 (km) |  | |
Reefs | Distance to the nearest reef | Specifically describes the reef habitats populated by reef fish species targeted by recreational fishers | 0–136.3 (km) |  | |
Slope | Incline of the sea bottom | Topography influences fish composition and biomass. Sloping sea bottom provides habitat for fish species targeted by recreational fishers | 0–50.6 (°) |  | |
Fishing | Accessibility | Distance to the nearest boat ramp access point | Determines ease and cost to access a given area from access nodes. Also has safety implications. We expect the risk of poaching to decrease with increased distance from boat ramps (distance decay) | 0–555.1(km) | If distance decay influences poaching risk, then the highest risk no-take zones are those nearest to access points. This information can be used to Increase the Effort and Increase the Risk of poaching at these locations |
Fishing capacity | Number of motorized recreational boats registered within a 50 km radius | Provides a proxy for the number of would-be offenders in a given area. We expect the risk of poaching to increase with the increased number of would-be offenders | 0–495670 (n) | SCP techniques that Increase the Risk, Reduce Provocations and Remove Excuses may be applied to maximise voluntary compliance within the pool of potential offenders | |
Management | Boundary | Distance from the nearest boundary | Poachers may fish in close proximity to MNP boundaries so as to be able to reduce their perceived risk of detection by patrols | 0–45.1 (km) | Employ strategies that Increase the Effort and Increase the Risk of poaching along the boundary of MNPs |
Facilities | Distance to the nearest pontoon or mooring | Public infrastructures can provide safety and facilitate access to high use sites | 0–482.4 (km) | Strategies that Reduce Provocations and Remove Excuses may be applied at these locations | |
Weather | Wind speed | Wind speed 10 m above sea-level | Weather reports are widely used by recreational fishers to plan their activity in the GBRMP | 0.2–18.6 (m/s) | Ensure that patrol effort is effectively applied during weather conditions suitable for recreational boating and during appropriate times to Increase the Effort and Increase the Risk to would-be offenders |
Wind direction | Direction from which the wind blows | Wind direction can influence sea conditions and recreational fishers’ decisions on where to fish to maximize reward (?) | 0–360 (°) |  | |
Swell height | Significant wave height of first swell partition | Swell height will influence both on water travel and stationary comfort levels for recreational fishing activity | 0.1–4.7 (m) |  | |
Swell direction | Mean direction of waves in the first swell partition | Swell direction can influence sea conditions and recreational fishers’ decisions on where to fish | 0–360 (°) |  | |
Temporal | Day | Day of the week | Previous research shows that poaching risk increases over weekends | 1–7 |  |
Month | Month of the year | Previous research shows that poaching is seasonal | 1–12 |  |