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Table 1 Summary of ARIMA modelling outcomes

From: Exploring regional variability in the short-term impact of COVID-19 on property crime in Queensland, Australia

 

Estimated resident population

Theft and related offences

Property damage

Shop stealing

Other stealing

Motor vehicle theft

All property damage

March

April

May

June

March

April

May

June

March

April

May

June

March

April

May

June

State-wide summary (of 77 LGAs)

 Estimable models (a)

−

24

38

22

41

 LGAs with increase (n significant) (b)

−

4 (1)

4 (0)

2 (0)

1 (0)

15 (1)

1 (0)

2 (0)

1 (0)

13 (4)

3 (0)

3 (0)

5 (0)

20 (2)

6 (0)

6 (0)

8 (0)

 LGAs with decrease (n significant) (c)

−

20 (3)

20 (14)

22 (14)

23 (11)

23 (4)

37 (32)

36 (24)

37 (20)

9 (0)

19 (11)

19 (5)

17 (9)

21 (1)

35 (10)

35 (10)

33 (3)

Key LGA Snapshot (% difference from forecast) (d)

 Brisbane City Council

1253982

−11.5

−46.7

−37.9

−31.2

−4.0

−43.0

−48.4

−44.1

11.5

−26.1

−31.8

−34.6

−4.5

−21.0

−17.6

−15.3

 Gold Coast City Council

620518

−1.7

−52.8

−30.0

−36.7

−12.4

−46.6

−43.3

−45.0

32.1

−3.3

−18.2

−38.2

−0.4

−19.3

−30.3

−7.3

 Moreton Bay Regional Council

469465

−20.2

−63.3

−50.1

−46.0

−15.7

−40.1

−54.5

−56.0

3.1

−27.7

−20.5

−38.5

−13.5

−30.7

−27.1

−25.1

 Logan City Council

334358

9.8

−46.1

−23.5

−33.9

−16.4

−43.8

−62.0

−57.0

2.2

−27.8

−36.1

−32.0

25.4

−15.7

−9.5

−24.1

 Sunshine Coast Regional Council

328428

−10.7

−65.7

−45.9

−45.9

−4.9

−38.3

−42.2

−40.0

23.7

−11.9

−10.1

−17.5

-9.7

−34.7

−22.7

−17.8

 Ipswich City Council

222307

−12.8

−51.2

−60.3

−28.4

−15.5

−48.6

−63.7

−58.6

−16.3

−46.1

−29.0

−39.0

−13.9

−23.5

−42.8

−18.7

 Townsville City Council

195032

−41.5

−70.9

−49.3

−71.9

−17.4

−55.8

−64.0

−62.8

N.R.E

−31.1

−23.8

−32.9

−24.5

 Toowoomba Regional Council

169008

−9.5

−40.7

−44.8

−26.8

−13.8

−35.5

−32.6

−21.7

20.9

−35.4

−9.5

−12.4

21.3

0.6

−19.5

0.5

 Cairns Regional Council

166862

−13.5

−56.1

−53.8

−59.3

13.3

−43.5

−59.6

−43.3

-25.9

−49.8

−43.8

−37.2

−14.5

−28.6

−15.4

−8.4

 Redland City Council

158815

−6.4

−6.4

−15.3

−30.9

−10.6

−34.7

−48.2

−47.0

-6.5

−51.4

−36.4

−47.7

9.7

−18.1

−28.3

−35.6

 Mackay Regional Council

116763

−28.7

−50.6

−70.8

−36.5

−12.1

−46.7

−49.4

−45.4

5.0

−28.5

−44.1

−44.1

33.6

1.6

−8.5

−21.6

 Fraser Coast Regional Council

106712

−13.9

−31.5

−40.4

−66.9

−4.3

−38.4

−44.0

−28.1

25.5

−53.6

−17.5

3.1

35.4

6.8

16.5

−23.1

 State-wide

5130000

−13.3

−49.0

−44.9

−42.3

−10.5

−42.7

−51.5

−45.3

−1.7

−37.7

−40.9

−41.6

−4.4

−24.2

−21.8

−12.4

 

Estimated Resident Population

Burglary

Fraud

Robbery

Residential

Other

All fraud

Armed and unarmed

March

April

May

June

March

April

May

June

March

April

May

June

March

April

May

June

State-wide summary (of 77 LGAs) 

 Estimable models (a)

–

23

25

13

8

 LGAs with increase (n significant) (b)

-–

15 (3)

1 (0)

0 (0)

4 (1)

21 (7)

7 (0)

4 (0)

2 (0)

2 (0)

1 (0)

1 (0)

1 (1)

3 (0)

0 (0)

0 (0)

0 (0)

 LGAs with decrease (n significant) (c)

-–

8 (2)

22 (19)

23 (9)

19 (8)

4 (0)

18 (8)

21 (3)

23 (5)

11 (0)

12 (0)

12 (0)

12 (0)

5 (0)

8 (6)

8 (3)

8 (4)

Key LGA Snapshot (% difference from forecast) (d)

 Brisbane City Council

1253982

−12.4

−49.7

−49.9

−49.1

11.7

−20.0

−27.2

−44.5

−11.7

−24.8

41.6

−20.5

25.9

−48.5

−28.8

−43.2

 Gold Coast City Council

620518

50.9

0.5

−39.7

−33.8

54.9

27.5

9.8

−8.0

−24.6

−8.3

−38.3

−18.9

−14.3

−28.6

−32.2

−53.6

 Moreton Bay Regional Council

469465

−5.7

−19.6

−37.5

−37.0

25.9

−21.2

−16.1

−29.5

−31.5

−50.8

−29.4

−29.0

−23.2

−28.4

−48.8

−23.2

 Logan City Council

334358

5.0

−23.5

−51.9

−38.4

26.1

−3.4

−9.2

−17.1

−7.9

−14.1

−17.7

−3.8

−13.8

−61.2

−22.4

−0.9

 Sunshine Coast Regional Council

328428

17.4

−47.1

−43.3

−26.1

42.1

24.1

−19.7

3.0

−32.4

−20.3

-8.2

−43.5

N.R.E

 Ipswich City Council

222307

−9.4

−44.2

−35.1

−37.7

8.1

−45.9

−33.2

−55.8

−27.1

−6.4

−24.4

−43.3

−14.9

−53.6

−69.1

−38.1

 Townsville City Council

195032

N.R.E

21.6

−44.3

−52.7

−61.2

98.1

−65.0

−44.4

-2.2

N.R.E

 Toowoomba Regional Council

169008

6.0

−56.3

−55.5

−35.0

-1.1

−19.7

−19.7

-4.5

−47.6

38.5

−59.2

163.5

N.R.E

 Cairns Regional Council

166862

−37.6

−48.8

−56.8

−46.7

21.6

−4.0

−37.8

−64.4

−30.0

−15.4

−18.4

−26.1

39.0

−12.2

−78.1

−12.2

 Redland City Council

158815

59.7

−34.2

−6.1

−21.7

77.3

23.6

−43.8

−43.8

0.2

−2.3

−61.0

−30.7

N.R.E

 Mackay Regional Council

116763

22.2

−23.0

−53.2

−30.8

3.7

−10.2

−70.3

−52.2

N.R.E

N.R.E

 Fraser Coast Regional Council

106712

104.8

−23.0

−32.2

−7.2

10.8

−0.3

−37.2

−40.9

N.R.E

N.R.E

 State-wide

5130000

−11.5

−50.4

−58.6

−54.2

23.1

−16.6

−31.7

−40.9

−19.4

−30.5

−11.2

−21.0

2.2

−41.4

−41.0

−32.5

  1. Source: Queensland Government Open Data Portal
  2. Bold italic values indicate increases or decreases that were statistically significant at p < 0.05
  3. aThe number of LGA-level ARIMA models (of 77 LGAs) which satisfied the robust estimation requirements for inclusion
  4. bThe number of estimable LGA-level models where the observed crime rate was higher than the forecasted rate in each month. The value in parentheses indicates the number of models where the increase was statistically significant
  5. cThe number of estimable LGA-level models where the observed crime rate was lower than the forecasted rate in each month. The value in parentheses indicates the number of models where the decrease was statistically significant
  6. dThe relative difference between the observed rate and the forecasted rate is measured as a percentage increase or decrease from the predicted point estimate