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Table 1 Summary of ARIMA modelling outcomes

From: Exploring regional variability in the short-term impact of COVID-19 on property crime in Queensland, Australia

  Estimated resident population Theft and related offences Property damage
Shop stealing Other stealing Motor vehicle theft All property damage
March April May June March April May June March April May June March April May June
State-wide summary (of 77 LGAs)
 Estimable models (a) 24 38 22 41
 LGAs with increase (n significant) (b) 4 (1) 4 (0) 2 (0) 1 (0) 15 (1) 1 (0) 2 (0) 1 (0) 13 (4) 3 (0) 3 (0) 5 (0) 20 (2) 6 (0) 6 (0) 8 (0)
 LGAs with decrease (n significant) (c) 20 (3) 20 (14) 22 (14) 23 (11) 23 (4) 37 (32) 36 (24) 37 (20) 9 (0) 19 (11) 19 (5) 17 (9) 21 (1) 35 (10) 35 (10) 33 (3)
Key LGA Snapshot (% difference from forecast) (d)
 Brisbane City Council 1253982 −11.5 −46.7 −37.9 −31.2 −4.0 −43.0 −48.4 −44.1 11.5 −26.1 −31.8 −34.6 −4.5 −21.0 −17.6 −15.3
 Gold Coast City Council 620518 −1.7 −52.8 −30.0 −36.7 −12.4 −46.6 −43.3 −45.0 32.1 −3.3 −18.2 −38.2 −0.4 −19.3 −30.3 −7.3
 Moreton Bay Regional Council 469465 −20.2 −63.3 −50.1 −46.0 −15.7 −40.1 −54.5 −56.0 3.1 −27.7 −20.5 −38.5 −13.5 −30.7 −27.1 −25.1
 Logan City Council 334358 9.8 −46.1 −23.5 −33.9 −16.4 −43.8 −62.0 −57.0 2.2 −27.8 −36.1 −32.0 25.4 −15.7 −9.5 −24.1
 Sunshine Coast Regional Council 328428 −10.7 −65.7 −45.9 −45.9 −4.9 −38.3 −42.2 −40.0 23.7 −11.9 −10.1 −17.5 -9.7 −34.7 −22.7 −17.8
 Ipswich City Council 222307 −12.8 −51.2 −60.3 −28.4 −15.5 −48.6 −63.7 −58.6 −16.3 −46.1 −29.0 −39.0 −13.9 −23.5 −42.8 −18.7
 Townsville City Council 195032 −41.5 −70.9 −49.3 −71.9 −17.4 −55.8 −64.0 −62.8 N.R.E −31.1 −23.8 −32.9 −24.5
 Toowoomba Regional Council 169008 −9.5 −40.7 −44.8 −26.8 −13.8 −35.5 −32.6 −21.7 20.9 −35.4 −9.5 −12.4 21.3 0.6 −19.5 0.5
 Cairns Regional Council 166862 −13.5 −56.1 −53.8 −59.3 13.3 −43.5 −59.6 −43.3 -25.9 −49.8 −43.8 −37.2 −14.5 −28.6 −15.4 −8.4
 Redland City Council 158815 −6.4 −6.4 −15.3 −30.9 −10.6 −34.7 −48.2 −47.0 -6.5 −51.4 −36.4 −47.7 9.7 −18.1 −28.3 −35.6
 Mackay Regional Council 116763 −28.7 −50.6 −70.8 −36.5 −12.1 −46.7 −49.4 −45.4 5.0 −28.5 −44.1 −44.1 33.6 1.6 −8.5 −21.6
 Fraser Coast Regional Council 106712 −13.9 −31.5 −40.4 −66.9 −4.3 −38.4 −44.0 −28.1 25.5 −53.6 −17.5 3.1 35.4 6.8 16.5 −23.1
 State-wide 5130000 13.3 49.0 44.9 42.3 10.5 42.7 51.5 45.3 1.7 37.7 40.9 41.6 4.4 24.2 21.8 12.4
  Estimated Resident Population Burglary Fraud Robbery
Residential Other All fraud Armed and unarmed
March April May June March April May June March April May June March April May June
State-wide summary (of 77 LGAs) 
 Estimable models (a) 23 25 13 8
 LGAs with increase (n significant) (b) -– 15 (3) 1 (0) 0 (0) 4 (1) 21 (7) 7 (0) 4 (0) 2 (0) 2 (0) 1 (0) 1 (0) 1 (1) 3 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0)
 LGAs with decrease (n significant) (c) -– 8 (2) 22 (19) 23 (9) 19 (8) 4 (0) 18 (8) 21 (3) 23 (5) 11 (0) 12 (0) 12 (0) 12 (0) 5 (0) 8 (6) 8 (3) 8 (4)
Key LGA Snapshot (% difference from forecast) (d)
 Brisbane City Council 1253982 −12.4 −49.7 −49.9 −49.1 11.7 −20.0 −27.2 −44.5 −11.7 −24.8 41.6 −20.5 25.9 −48.5 −28.8 −43.2
 Gold Coast City Council 620518 50.9 0.5 −39.7 −33.8 54.9 27.5 9.8 −8.0 −24.6 −8.3 −38.3 −18.9 −14.3 −28.6 −32.2 −53.6
 Moreton Bay Regional Council 469465 −5.7 −19.6 −37.5 −37.0 25.9 −21.2 −16.1 −29.5 −31.5 −50.8 −29.4 −29.0 −23.2 −28.4 −48.8 −23.2
 Logan City Council 334358 5.0 −23.5 −51.9 −38.4 26.1 −3.4 −9.2 −17.1 −7.9 −14.1 −17.7 −3.8 −13.8 −61.2 −22.4 −0.9
 Sunshine Coast Regional Council 328428 17.4 −47.1 −43.3 −26.1 42.1 24.1 −19.7 3.0 −32.4 −20.3 -8.2 −43.5 N.R.E
 Ipswich City Council 222307 −9.4 −44.2 −35.1 −37.7 8.1 −45.9 −33.2 −55.8 −27.1 −6.4 −24.4 −43.3 −14.9 −53.6 −69.1 −38.1
 Townsville City Council 195032 N.R.E 21.6 −44.3 −52.7 −61.2 98.1 −65.0 −44.4 -2.2 N.R.E
 Toowoomba Regional Council 169008 6.0 −56.3 −55.5 −35.0 -1.1 −19.7 −19.7 -4.5 −47.6 38.5 −59.2 163.5 N.R.E
 Cairns Regional Council 166862 −37.6 −48.8 −56.8 −46.7 21.6 −4.0 −37.8 −64.4 −30.0 −15.4 −18.4 −26.1 39.0 −12.2 −78.1 −12.2
 Redland City Council 158815 59.7 −34.2 −6.1 −21.7 77.3 23.6 −43.8 −43.8 0.2 −2.3 −61.0 −30.7 N.R.E
 Mackay Regional Council 116763 22.2 −23.0 −53.2 −30.8 3.7 −10.2 −70.3 −52.2 N.R.E N.R.E
 Fraser Coast Regional Council 106712 104.8 −23.0 −32.2 −7.2 10.8 −0.3 −37.2 −40.9 N.R.E N.R.E
 State-wide 5130000 11.5 50.4 58.6 54.2 23.1 16.6 31.7 40.9 19.4 30.5 11.2 21.0 2.2 41.4 41.0 32.5
  1. Source: Queensland Government Open Data Portal
  2. Bold italic values indicate increases or decreases that were statistically significant at p < 0.05
  3. aThe number of LGA-level ARIMA models (of 77 LGAs) which satisfied the robust estimation requirements for inclusion
  4. bThe number of estimable LGA-level models where the observed crime rate was higher than the forecasted rate in each month. The value in parentheses indicates the number of models where the increase was statistically significant
  5. cThe number of estimable LGA-level models where the observed crime rate was lower than the forecasted rate in each month. The value in parentheses indicates the number of models where the decrease was statistically significant
  6. dThe relative difference between the observed rate and the forecasted rate is measured as a percentage increase or decrease from the predicted point estimate