Table 2 Examples of multi-casualty terror attack patterns yielded by the C4.5 classifier
Pattern of multi-casualty terror attack | Lift \(\left( {\frac{\% \; in\; the\; pattern}{\% \; in \;the\; data}} \right)\) | % of multi-casualty events given a different value of a specific feature in the pattern | Recommended investigation that could contribute to the prevention of terror attacks |
|---|---|---|---|
Suicide = “No” Target = Military or Police City = “Mosul” Attack Type = Hostage-taking (kidnapping) ↓ “High” number of casualties = 6 events out of 7 (86%) | \(\left( {\frac{86}{13}} \right) = 6.6\) | Suicide = “No” Target = Military or Police City = “Mosul” Attack Type = Bombing/Assassination/Armed Assault ↓ “High” number of casualties = 6 events out of 146 (4%) | Learn the methodology of the act of hostage-taking against police and military in Mosul, and how it differs from other types of attack Propose actions to prevent or respond to hostage-taking, so as to avoid multiple causalities |
Suicide = “No” Target = “Checkpoint” Attack Type = Armed Assault Nationality of Target = “Afghanistan” Province = “Helmand” Month of event <>5 ↓ “High” number of casualties = 22 events out of 26 (85%) | \(\left( {\frac{85}{13}} \right) = 6.5\) | Suicide = “No” Target = “Checkpoint” Attack Type = Armed Assault Nationality of Target = “Afghanistan” Province = “Helmand” Month of event = 5 ↓ “High” number of casualties = 3 events out of 17 (18%) | Try to engage in negotiations and resolve things nonviolently during May and/or use this as an opportunity to evacuate people so as to avoid multiple-causality terror attacks during the rest of the year. |
Suicide = “No” Target = “village” Attack Type = Armed Assault Country = “Nigeria” Perpetrator Group Name = Fulani extremist Weapon type = Firearms Latitude > 10 Longitude > 7.4 ↓ “High” number of casualties = 5 events out of 5 (100%) | \(\left( {\frac{100}{13}} \right) = 7.7\) | Suicide = “No” Target = “village” Attack Type = Armed Assault Country = “Nigeria” Perpetrator Group Name = Fulani extremist Weapon type = Firearms Latitude > 10 and Longitude ≤ 7.4 or Latitude < 10 ↓ “High” number of casualties = 59 events out of 303 (19%) | Investigate the defense and response abilities of villages in Nigeria located at Kaduna (latitude > 10 and longitude > 7.4), relative to those of villages located in other areas Apply the approaches to tackling violent conflicts used at other locations to Kaduna—approaches that are rooted in the prevention of multiple-causality terror attacks |