| Variable | Measure | Rationale | Hypothesis |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Distance to rhino | Average distance (km) to nearest rhino hotspot | Reward | More illegal border entries in areas near high rhino densities |
2a | Distance to rhino | Average distance (km) to nearest rhino hotspot | Minimal risk | More illegal border exits in areas near high rhino densities |
2b | Buildings | 1 = Buildings present 0 = No buildings | Minimal risk | Fewer illegal border crossings where buildings are present |
3a | Phone signal | 1 = Usable signal 0 = No or unusable signal | Minimal effort | More border exits in areas with a usable phone signal |
3b | Roads outside | km road/km2 | Minimal effort | More illegal border crossings in areas with high road densities outside the reserve |
4 | Distance to power lines | Average distance (km) to nearest power line | Navigation | More illegal border crossings in areas near power lines |