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Table 1 Fifteen hypotheses

From: Five tests for a theory of the crime drop

Name

    Mechanism

Strong economy

    Wealthy offenders commit less crime

Concealed weapons laws

    More defensive guns, less crime

Capital punishment

    More death penalty deterred crime

Gun control laws

    Less guns, less crime

Rising prison population

    Incapacitation and deterrence reduce crime

Policing strategies

    Policing focused on crime problems (Compstat, POP)

More police

    More police detected and deterred crime

Legalization of abortion

    More abortion since 1973, less offenders by 1990s

Immigration

    Immigrants commit less crime, so crime fell as immigration rose

Consumer confidence

    Wealthy buy less from stolen goods markets

Waning crack market

    2nd generation youth deterred by violence and prison for elders

Childhood lead

    Lead poisoning of children made them adolescent criminals

Changing demographics

    Aging population means relatively less young offenders

Civilizing process

    Social institutions more legitimate (1960s-80s = age of protest)

Improved security

    Improved security, reduced crime opportunities