From: Measuring the impact of the state of emergency on crime trends in Japan: a panel data analysis
 | Residential burglary | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
 | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. |
Trend | - 0.004 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 0.011 |  -0.015 | 0.011 | - 0.008 | 0.012 |
Temperature |  -0.038 | 0.011*** | - 0.029 | 0.011* |  -0.021 | 0.011†| - 0.026 | 0.012* |
State of Emergency | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 SoE period |  |  | -0.002 | 0.049 |  |  | 0.134 | 0.074†|
 SoE period x intensity |  |  |  -0.180 | 0.064** |  |  | - 0.047 | 0.074 |
Ambient population | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Residential |  |  |  |  | - 0.030 | 0.010** | - 0.028 | 0.011* |
 Transit stations |  |  |  |  |  -0.006 | 0.004 |  -0.004 | 0.004 |
 Retail and recreation |  |  |  |  | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
 Grocery and pharmacy |  |  |  |  | 0.015 | 0.007* | 0.015 | 0.007* |
Constant | 9.871 | 34.110 | 33.833 | 35.216 | 43.645 | 35.055 | 19.762 | 38.294 |
Log Likelihood | - 2025.79 |  | -2017.98 |  | -2010.24 |  | -2008.57 |  |
AIC | 4057.57 | Â | 4045.97 | Â | 4034.48 | Â | 4035.14 | Â |
BIC | 4072.40 | Â | 4070.68 | Â | 4069.07 | Â | 4079.61 | Â |
 | Commercial burglary | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
 | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. |
Trend | - 0.025 | 0.011* | - 0.008 | 0.011 | - 0.031 | 0.011** |  -0.025 | 0.012* |
Temperature | - 0.019 | 0.011†|  -0.040 | 0.011*** | -0.022 | 0.011* | - 0.027 | 0.012* |
State of Emergency | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 SoE period |  |  | 0.308 | 0.048*** |  |  | 0.181 | 0.075* |
 SoE period x intensity |  |  |  -0.165 | 0.062** |  |  | - 0.231 | 0.073** |
Ambient population | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Residential |  |  |  |  | 0.004 | 0.010 | 0.016 | 0.011 |
 Transit stations |  |  |  |  |  -0.009 | 0.004* |  -0.003 | 0.004 |
 Retail and recreation |  |  |  |  | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.005 |
 Grocery and pharmacy |  |  |  |  | 0.015 | 0.007* | 0.017 | 0.007* |
Constant | 66.444 | 34.378 | 13.740 | 35.424 | 83.586 | 34.806 | 67.190 | 38.207 |
Log Likelihood |  -2253.43 |  | 2231.75 |  | -2230.08 |  | -2223.27 |  |
AIC | 4512.86 | Â | 4473.51 | Â | 4474.16 | Â | 4464.54 | Â |
BIC | 4527.68 | Â | 4498.21 | Â | 4508.75 | Â | 4509.01 | Â |
 | Theft from/of vehicle | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
 | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. |
Trend |  -0.010 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 0.009 |  -0.010 | 0.008 | - 0.004 | 0.009 |
Temperature |  -0.016 | 0.008†| - 0.036 | 0.009*** | -0.021 | 0.008* |  -0.026 | 0.009** |
State of Emergency | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 SoE period |  |  | 0.213 | 0.035 |  |  | 0.125 | 0.057* |
 SoE period x intensity |  |  | - 0.034 | 0.046 |  |  | -0.066 | 0.053 |
Ambient population | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Residential |  |  |  |  | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.008 |
 Transit stations |  |  |  |  |  -0.006 | 0.003†|  -0.003 | 0.003 |
 Retail and recreation |  |  |  |  |  -0.002 | 0.003 |  -0.001 | 0.004 |
 Grocery and pharmacy |  |  |  |  | 0.015 | 0.006** | 0.015 | 0.006** |
Constant  | 18.915 | 26.462 |  -34.538 | 27.012 | 21.052 | 26.347 | 0.945 | 28.783 |
Log Likelihood | -2725.55 |  |  -2698.97 |  | -2694.22 |  | -2691.36 |  |
AIC | 5457.10 | Â | 5407.94 | Â | 5402.44 | Â | 5400.72 | Â |
BIC | 5471.92 | Â | 5432.65 | Â | 5437.03 | Â | 5445.19 | Â |
 | Bicycle theft | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
 | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. |
Trend |  -0.036 | 0.007*** | - 0.054 | 0.007*** | 0.050 | 0.007*** | -0.047 | 0.008*** |
Temperature | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.026 | 0.007*** | 0.033 | 0.007*** | 0.031 | 0.007*** |
State of Emergency | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 SoE period |  |  |  -0.184 | 0.035*** |  |  | 0.009 | 0.050 |
 SoE period x intensity |  |  | -0.100 | 0.044* |  |  | 0.077 | 0.050 |
Ambient population | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Residential |  |  |  |  |  -0.023 | 0.007** | -0.028 | 0.008*** |
 Transit stations |  |  |  |  | - 0.006 | 0.003* |  -0.007 | 0.003* |
 Retail and recreation |  |  |  |  | 0.005 | 0.003†| 0.007 | 0.003* |
 Grocery and pharmacy |  |  |  |  | 0.035 | 0.005*** | 0.034 | 0.005*** |
Constant  | 107.380 | 23.199 | 163.602 | 22.508 | 153.065 | 21.964 | 142.711 | 24.333 |
Log Likelihood | -3338.23 |  |  -3286.16 |  |  -3223.70 |  | -3222.36 |  |
AIC | 6682.46 | Â | 6582.32 | Â | 6461.41 | Â | 6462.72 | Â |
BIC | 6697.28 | Â | 6607.02 | Â | 6496.00 | Â | 6507.19 | Â |
 | Sexual assault | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
 | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. |
Trend | 0.011 | 0.020 |  -0.036 | 0.021†| -0.021 | 0.020 |  -0.029 | 0.022 |
Temperature | 0.005 | 0.020 | 0.032 | 0.021 | 0.026 | 0.021 | 0.030 | 0.021 |
State of Emergency | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 SoE period |  |  | -0.127 | 0.097 |  |  |  -0.023 | 0.138 |
 SoE period x intensity |  |  | - 0.236 | 0.120†|  |  | - 0.250 | 0.137 |
Ambient population | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Residential |  |  |  |  | 0.001 | 0.020 | 0.014 | 0.021 |
 Transit stations |  |  |  |  | 0.009 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.008 |
 Retail and recreation |  |  |  |  | 0.000 | 0.008 | - 0.005 | 0.008 |
 Grocery and pharmacy |  |  |  |  | 0.008 | 0.013 | 0.009 | 0.013 |
Constant  | 21.603 | 63.175 | 99.634 | 64.165 | 54.831 | 63.769 | 80.185 | 67.800 |
Log Likelihood | 1-064.61 |  | - 1053.81 |  | -1054.60 |  | - 1052.66 |  |
AIC | 2135.21 | Â | 2117.62 | Â | 2123.20 | Â | 2123.32 | Â |
BIC | 2150.04 | Â | 2142.33 | Â | 2157.79 | Â | 2167.79 | Â |
 | Violence and injury | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
 | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. | B | S.E. |
Trend | - 0.005 | 0.007 |  -0.009 | 0.007 | - 0.014 | 0.007* | - 0.016 | 0.007* |
Temperature | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.012 | 0.007†|
State of Emergency | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 SoE period |  |  | 0.029 | 0.029 |  |  | 0.003 | 0.044 |
 SoE period x intensity |  |  | - 0.140 | 0.038*** |  |  | 0.100 | 0.042* |
Ambient population | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Residential |  |  |  |  | 0.013 | 0.006* |  -0.008 | 0.007 |
 Transit stations |  |  |  |  |  -0.009 | 0.002*** | - 0.008 | 0.003** |
 Retail and recreation |  |  |  |  | 0.006 | 0.002* | 0.004 | 0.003†|
 Grocery and pharmacy |  |  |  |  | 0.013 | 0.004** | 0.014 | 0.004** |
Constant  | 3.285 | 20.330 | 17.746 | 21.008 | 31.259 | 20.510 | 38.621 | 21.968 |
Log Likelihood | -2657.95 |  | - 2648.60 |  | 2637.59 |  | -2634.71 |  |
AIC | 5321.91 | Â | 5307.19 | Â | 5289.18 | Â | 5287.42 | Â |
BIC | 5336.73 | Â | 5331.90 | Â | 5323.77 | Â | 5331.89 | Â |